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Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on Dengue Vector Densities in Southeast Asia through Process-Based Modeling

A collaborative work between Institut Pasteur du Cambodge, Institut Pasteur du Laos, the French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD) and the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (Cirad) has been published recently in the renowned scientific journal “Environmental Health Perspective”. The authors evidenced the future impacts of man-made climate change on public health, by highlighting the threat of a significant rise in densities of a potential vector for numerous infectious diseases in Southeast Asia during the 21st century. The main results suggest that densities of the main dengue virus vector species, Aedes aegypti, will increase up to 46% by the end of the century due to rising temperatures and that climate mitigation measures are unlikely to significantly moderate this increase. The density of the second dengue virus vector, Aedes albopictus, will follow this increasing trend but in a more moderate way (up to 23%), with local and seasonal contrasts (such as a significant decrease in lowlands during summer).


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